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Author Topic: Local comps or distant ones?  (Read 1895 times)
phoenix13
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« Reply #30 on: July 08, 2013, 01:01:37 PM »

Funny.  I'd go with the statistical analysis any day of the week.    Arunas could easily be an outlier.  Going with one data point and/or anecdotal data can be misleading.  Not only that, people at the very top echelons are so close to each other that any results would likely be minute and therefore subject to debate.

But a designed experiment with an independent variable of number of lessons taken with judges and comp results as a response, involving gold or open level competitors would likely give some data you could sink your teeth into... IF you controlled for skill level, dance type, costuming, etc.   

It could be done, if one had enough free time.  Grin
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elisedance
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« Reply #31 on: July 08, 2013, 01:03:27 PM »

Funny.  I'd go with the statistical analysis any day of the week.    Arunas could easily be an outlier.  Going with one data point and/or anecdotal data can be misleading.  Not only that, people at the very top echelons are so close to each other that any results would likely be minute and therefore subject to debate.
what do you mean?

I was talking about judging a competition - shouldn't the judges go by what they see on the floor and not what they read on DSI???
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phoenix13
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« Reply #32 on: July 08, 2013, 01:09:58 PM »

One day I'll do a statistical analysis of ballroom dance scoring and calculate the odds of the judges getting the merit of the dancers right given the variance.  I'd be very surprised if that analysis would conclude that the judging was impartial.  

I bet if Arunas danced with a broken leg he would still win... Tongue


This.  

Speculating that Arunas would do well regardless may well be true, but it's just speculation.  A statistical analysis, if anyone were ever to do one, would give data ... which is what I thought you were after, if only in jest.


And yes.  Of course.  Judges SHOULD judge what they see on the floor in front of them, for the minute or two, on that day, in that moment.   The dancers' names, ranking, history, or familiarity to the judges shouldn't matter.

I thought what we were speculating about is whether those things DO matter or not.
« Last Edit: July 08, 2013, 01:14:43 PM by phoenix13 » Logged

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elisedance
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« Reply #33 on: July 08, 2013, 02:37:04 PM »

One day I'll do a statistical analysis of ballroom dance scoring and calculate the odds of the judges getting the merit of the dancers right given the variance.  I'd be very surprised if that analysis would conclude that the judging was impartial. 

I bet if Arunas danced with a broken leg he would still win... Tongue

Speculating that Arunas would do well regardless may well be true, but it's just speculation.  A statistical analysis, if anyone were ever to do one, would give data ... which is what I thought you were after, if only in jest.

That's not speculation its a fact - he and his partner win every competition he enters and has since he became world champion.  I used him as an example because with a 100% success rate statistics - statistics has rater a limited value.   What the results say is that they are so good that regardless of their performance they still outshine the next competitor.  I find that hard to swallow.
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phoenix13
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« Reply #34 on: July 08, 2013, 03:00:13 PM »

But since he's yet to compete with a broken leg ...  Grin



ETA:  What I was getting at, though, is that, even though Arunas doesn't lose, hasn't lost recently, and is unlikely to lose anytime soon,  if what we are looking at is whether judges overall are biased in favor of certain competitors, we need more than one data point.  Just sayin. *shrug*
« Last Edit: July 08, 2013, 03:29:24 PM by phoenix13 » Logged

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elisedance
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« Reply #35 on: July 08, 2013, 03:47:34 PM »

yup.  next lets see who looses every competition ... Tongue  Grin
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phoenix13
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« Reply #36 on: July 08, 2013, 03:49:41 PM »

Call me crazy, but I'm going to venture to guess ... everybody but Arunas?  Shocked Grin
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phoenix13
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« Reply #37 on: July 08, 2013, 04:19:56 PM »

Actually,  I think it would be very interesting to see what you suggested -- the scoring, which I read as the actual marks, of, say the top twelve or thirteen couples as related to their primary coaches  and supplementary coaches.

Would be kind of interesting to lay out the experiment.  Hmm...
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elisedance
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« Reply #38 on: July 08, 2013, 07:23:45 PM »

Yes - but you would never pull it off.  The danceworld is too closed.
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phoenix13
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« Reply #39 on: July 08, 2013, 07:46:53 PM »

The marks for a lot of the major comps are published.  Even just that much would be interesting to analyze.
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« Reply #40 on: July 08, 2013, 09:32:14 PM »

The marks for a lot of the major comps are published.  Even just that much would be interesting to analyze.
well, that's what I'm going on.  Take the top 6 couples in the world and look at their ranking for the past 5 years.  You will see hardly any movement at all - and no one has a bad day...

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« Reply #41 on: July 08, 2013, 09:34:44 PM »

Plausible ... not!
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« Reply #42 on: July 08, 2013, 09:35:23 PM »

certainly not for my dancing Tongue
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phoenix13
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« Reply #43 on: July 09, 2013, 11:09:29 AM »

Also an impossible dream because of the closed nature of comps, etc, but it would be interesting to follow several non household name couples and to compare their results at local versus distant comps. 

My uneducated guess is that there'd be a lot of variation in the data.  If I had to venture a guess, I would say that, with some judges, familiarity is a bonus; with others, it may well breed contempt. Still.  Mapping the data judge by judge might well be enlightening.  If only such a thing were possible.
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elisedance
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« Reply #44 on: July 09, 2013, 02:42:53 PM »

Also an impossible dream because of the closed nature of comps, etc, but it would be interesting to follow several non household name couples and to compare their results at local versus distant comps. 

My uneducated guess is that there'd be a lot of variation in the data.  If I had to venture a guess, I would say that, with some judges, familiarity is a bonus; with others, it may well breed contempt. Still.  Mapping the data judge by judge might well be enlightening.  If only such a thing were possible.
You need to note another variable: dancers who took lessons from a judge.  Tongue Tongue
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